Dantheman4250's Sports Blog

BUBBLE WATCH:
Total Locks (26):

ACC:
Locks (3):

Virginia Tech (17-11, 8-6): Would ten ACC wins be enough? In a normal year it would be, but this year the bubble is weaker than ever.
Remaining Games: Wake Forest (March 4), Clemson (March 9)

Maryland (17-11, 7-6): The Terps would love to get to that same magic number of 10 SEC wins. The remaining schedule gives them a chance to do that.
Remaining Games: Wake Forest (February 28), Clemson (March 2), Virginia (March 9)

Wake Forest (16-6, 6-6): Wake's non conference schedule does not help at all and a .500 record in the ACC doesn't help either. Wake needs to get to 9-7 in the ACC.
Remaining Games: Maryland (February 28), Georgia Tech (March 1), Virginia Tech (March 4), N. C. State (March 8)

Miami (19-8, 6-7): Want to know how weird of a year it is for the bubble? Miami could actually finish seventh in the ACC and be the fourth best team in the committee's eyes just based off their tournament resume.
Remaining Games: Virginia (March 1), Boston College (March 5), Florida State (March 8)

Atlantic Ten
Locks (1):

Saint Josephs (17-8, 8-4): The Hawks are now in pretty good shape because they appear to be the Atlantic 10's second best team. This year that will get them a bid for sure.
Remaining Games: St. Louis (February 28), Temple (March 2), Xavier (March 6), Dayton (March 8)

Massachusetts (18-9, 7-6): The Minutemen have been up and down the entire season. Ten wins in the Atlantic Ten would certainly help their cause, and it wouldn't hurt to win a few games in the Atlantic Ten Tournament either.
Remaining Games: Richmond (March 1), La Salle (March 5), George Washington (March 8)

Rhode Island (20-9, 6-8): A promising start to the season has not turned out the way it began for the Rams. Since starting 19-3 they are now 20-9. They have lost six of seven.
Remaining Games: La Salle (March 1), Charlotte (March 8)

Dayton (17-9, 5-8): Injuries have all but destroyed the Flyers chances. Since a 14-1 start they are now 17-9; losers of eight of their last eleven games.
Remaining Games: Fordham (March 1), St. Bonaventure (March 5), Saint Josephs (March 8)

Big East
Locks (5):

West Virginia (19-8, 9-6): You would think 10 Big East wins would be enough and I'd say the Mountaineers are one of the few teams on this list feeling pretty good about their chances.
Remaining Games: Connecticut (March 1), Pittsburgh (March 3), St. Johns (March 8)

Villanova (17-10, 7-8): Ok Nova it's now or never to earn a bid. Louisville, South Florida, and Providence are all coming up meaning a big W versus Louisville and taking care of business against the other two would likely be enough.
Remaining Games: Louisville (March 2), South Florida (March 5), Providence (March 8)

Syracuse (17-11, 7-8): Syracuse is in a tough position. They've lost a lot of games to bubble teams (Umass, RIU, and WVU to name a few). They also have lost two in a row and have three tough games remaining to play.
Remaining Games: Pittsburgh (March 1), Seton Hall (March 5), Marquette (March 8)

Seton Hall (17-11, 7-8): Nobody is naming Seton Hall as a serious contender for an at large bid. Considering they've lost 5 of 7 it's easy to see why. The Pirates need a miracle finish to make it.
Remaining Games: St. Johns (March 1), Syracuse (March 5), Rutgers (March 9)

Big Ten
Locks (4):

Ohio State (17-11, 8-7): The Buckeyes are in a MUST situation to win at least two of their next three games against Minnesota, Purdue, and Michigan State. If they don't it is going to be very difficult for them to get an at large bid.
Remaining Games: Minnesota (March 1), Purdue (March 4), Michigan State (March 9)

Big 12
Locks (2):

Kansas State (19-8, 8-5): Since a 17-5 start they have now lost four of five to fall back into trouble. I think they get in with one more Big 12 win, but they might want to win a couple just to be safe.
Remaining Games: Kansas (March 1), Colorado (March 4), Iowa State (March 8)

Texas A&M (21-7, 7-6): Another Big 12 team (like KSU) that appears headed for the NCAA Tournament. Right now though they've lost three of four and have Oklahoma, Baylor, and Kansas left. That's dangerous.
Remaining Games: Oklahoma (March 1), Baylor (March 5), Kansas (March 8)

Baylor (19-8, 7-6): Baylor needs at least a 9-7 record in the Big 12 to feel good about their chances and the schedule looks good. They also might want to win a game or two in the Big 12 Tournament.
Remaining Games: Missouri (March 1), Texas A&M (March 5), Texas Tech (March 8)

Nebraska (17-9, 6-7): The Cornhuskers are playing great basketball now. They've knocked off three potential tournament teams (Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Kansas State) in the past two weeks.
Remaining Games: Oklahoma State (March 1), Texas (March 4), Colorado (March 9)

Oklahoma (18-10, 6-7): That loss to Nebraska was one of the worst I've seen this season for any bubble team. On Selection Sunday that could be the crippling loss for the Sooners.
Remaining Games: Texas A&M (March 1), Oklahoma State (March 5), Missouri (March 8)

Conference USA
Locks: (1):

Houston (21-6, 10-3): The Cougars missed out on their chances against Memphis and they lost their one chances against UAB. They do have a win against Kentucky, but they need a nice Conference USA Tournament run.
Remaining Games: East Carolina (March 1), Central Florida (March 5), UTEP (March 8)

UAB (20-8, 10-3): The Blazers barely lost to Memphis and has a nice win against Houston at home. The Blazers have (like Houston) also knocked off Kentucky.
Remaining Games: Tulane (March 1), Tulsa (March 5), Memphis (March 8)

Missouri Valley
Locks: (1):

Illinois State (21-8, 12-5): I think the Redbirds need to win their one regular season game remaining and then reach at least the Missouri Valley semifinals to be in the conversation deep into Selection Sunday.
Remaining Games: Southern Illinois (March 1)

Southern Illinois (17-12, 11-6): Five straight wins has the Salukis back on the bubble. Can 12 losses really get you into the tournament as an at large in a down year for the MIssouri Valley? Honestly I don't think so.
Remaining Games: Illinois State (March 1)

Creighton (19-9, 9-8): I'm pretty sire the Bluejays loss to Southern Illinois ended any at large hops for Creighton. A 9-8 record in the MVC probably won't get it done, but a run to the MVC championship game might reopen their resume for discussion.
Remaining Games: Bradley (March 1)

Mountain West
Locks: (1):

UNLV (21-6, 10-3): Winning out and getting 13 Mountain West victories will probably be enough for the Rebels. The New Mexico game will be huge (see below for more).
Remaining Games: TCU (March 1), New Mexico (March 4), Utah (March 8)

New Mexico (22-7, 9-5): The loss to BYU hurt their at large hopes badly but a win against UNLV will get them right back into the hunt. Can they get it done?
Remaining Games: UNLV (March 4), Colorado State (March 8)

Pac 10

Locks (3):

USC (17-9, 8-6): The Pac 10 has so many teams in contention for an at large it appears they are in great shape. The Trojans have four games remaining, a split probably gets it done.
Remaining Games: Arizona (February 28), Arizona State (March 1), California (March 6), Stanford (March 8)

Arizona State (17-9, 7-7): The Sun Devils need a split in their remaining four and a win or two in the Pac 10 tournament to feel safe on Selection Sunday.
Remaining Games: UCLA (February 28), USC (March 1), Oregon (March 6), Oregon State (March 8)

Arizona (17-10, 7-7): The Wildcats have the #1 strength of schedule, meaning a .500 Pac Ten record will get them in the field for sure.
Remaining Games: USC (February 28), UCLA (March 2), Oregon State (March 6), Oregon (March 8)

California (15-10, 6-8): The Bears are close to falling off the bubble. California has three tough games remaining to end the season, so they will either play their way in or out.
Remaining Games: Washington State (February 28), Washington (March 1), USC (March 6), UCLA (March 8)

Oregon (15-12, 6-9): I think the Ducks are done.They have three winninable games left but they might to win all three to still be in contention for an at large going into the Pac 10 tournament.
Remaining Games: Oregon State (March 2), Arizona State (March 6), Arizona (March 8)

SEC
Locks: (2):

Kentucky (16-10, 10-3): The Wildcats have played themselves back into the picture. If they can knock off Tennessee on Saturday then they will be back in my bracket.
Remaining Games: Tennessee (March 2), South Carolina (March 5), Florida (March 9)

Florida (21-7, 8-5): The Gators need 10 SEC wins big time consideration. Remaining games against Mississippi State, Tennessee, and Kentucky will either allow them to play themselves in or out.
Remaining Games: Mississippi State (March 1), Tennessee (March 5), Kentucky (March 9)

Mississippi State (19-8, 10-3): Ten SEC wins will generally get it done (Kentucky's case is rare) so I think the Bulldogs get in unless they collapse down the stretch.
Remaining Games: Florida (March 1), Vanderbilt (March 5), LSU (March 8)

Arkansas (18-9, 7-6): The Razorbacks have put themselves in a bad spot with back to back bad losses against Kentucky and Alabama. They are still in decent shape.
Remaining Games: Vanderbilt (March 1), Mississippi (March 4), Auburn (March 8)

Others

Virginia Commonwealth (22-6, 14-3): A lot of bubble teams are hoping the Rams get the CAA automatic bid so they can't steal an at large here.
Remaining Games: William & Mary (March 1)

George Mason (20-9, 12-5): The Patriots loss to Ohio in the bracket buster probably ended their at large hopes but a run to the CAA Final might get them back into the conversation.
Remaining Games: March 1

Kent State (23-5, 11-2): Another bubble team nobody wants to see lose in their conference tournament. They almost assuredly will get an at large after their bracketbuster win.

Davidson (22-6, 19-0): If they lose in their tournament then they would be one of the hardest cases to decide on Selection Sunday.
Remaining Games: Georgia Southern (March 1)

dantheman4250

Dantheman4250's Bubble Watch (Through Wed Games)

ACC:

Atlantic Ten

Big East

Big Ten

Big 12

Conference USA

Missouri Valley

Mountain West

Pac 10

SEC

Others

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